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Many metric learning tasks, such as triplet learning, nearest neighbor retrieval, and visualization, are treated primarily as embedding tasks where the ultimate metric is some variant of the Euclidean distance (e.g., cosine or Mahalanobis), and the algorithm must learn to embed points into the pre-chosen space. The study of non-Euclidean geometries is often not explored, which we believe is due to a lack of tools for learning non-Euclidean measures of distance. Recent work has shown that Bregman divergences can be learned from data, opening a promising approach to learning asymmetric distances. We propose a new approach to learning arbitrary Bergman divergences in a differentiable manner via input convex neural networks and show that it overcomes significant limitations of previous works. We also demonstrate that our method more faithfully learns divergences over a set of both new and previously studied tasks, including asymmetric regression, ranking, and clustering. Our tests further extend to known asymmetric, but non-Bregman tasks, where our method still performs competitively despite misspecification, showing the general utility of our approach for asymmetric learning. 

Abstract Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^ndmost accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5^thmost accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.